Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at $270 billion Guggenheim Investments, thinks market participants are underestimating the impact the coronavirus will have on global growth due to misrepresented calculations.
He points to tight credit spreads, low yields, and assets that are “priced to perfection” to further his thesis.
Minerd says “this will eventually end badly” and that he’s never “seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now.”
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Fears over the coronavirus’ severity have been ebbing and flowing in lockstep with market sentiment. As worries subside, markets rally. As they increase, markets fade.
“In the markets today, yields are low, spreads are tight, and risk assets are priced to perfection, but everywhere you look there are red flags,” said Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at $270 billion Guggenheim Investments. “The latest red flag is the coronavirus.”
He continued: “Many experts are confident that as bad as the numbers are, the Chinese are underreporting.”
The chart below — compiled by Minerd and his team — compares the timeline of number of confirmed coronavirus cases versus that of SARS. It’s clear that the coronavirus’ prevalence has grown exponentially faster.
Minerd thinks the media is misrepresenting coronavirus death rates, which is causing many investors to underestimate its influence on growth.
“The impact of all this on corporate profits and free cash flow will be dramatic,” he said. “The effect on oil and energy prices could be even more extreme.”
He continued: “Our estimate is that China’s GDP growth for the first quarter could be slashed to -6% annualized from an already slow 6% in the fourth quarter. That could shave about 200 basis points off of global growth relative to its recent trend.”
To further demonstrate his thinking and highlight the market’s complacency, Minerd points to pricing action in corporate bonds, a …read more
Source:: Business Insider